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Two days to go.

The English side's first Test in Australia gets under way on Friday morning.

With the help of CricViz, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be won and lost.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are even planning to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

When it comes to playing in Australian conditions, especially against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to score runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the fastest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the ideal combination for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam is a more significant asset than swing bowling in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test match cricket is about solving problems.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Skipper Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

In addition to Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average under 30 in home Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the duo, they have won by a total of 694 runs, including a victory against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to look beyond their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – England should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners faster than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Since Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has scored more runs together.

Their success as a combination has been a reason in Zak Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His average increases when the bowling gets faster.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a constant state of flux, still seeking to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Yet to debut Jake Weatherald looks set to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has brought him back, probably back at three.

Across seven matches in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spinners to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a broken finger, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been extremely challenging in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Recall the potency of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was half that number.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning the spinner has fewer opportunities to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

The series began in Brisbane, where they have failed to win since the year 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have a single victory in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only one time, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the tour are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

Perth hosts an Ashes opener for the first time, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the visitors approach with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were stunned by West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

The home side have won four of the five Tests played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

The English often overthink day-night matches, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|