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The direst possible consequences of the global heating for the UK have been mapped by researchers, ranging from a blistering 4C jump in temperatures to a two-metre surge in sea level. An alternative projection envisions a drop of 6C in temperature following the failure of key Atlantic Ocean currents, which would severely impact farming and energy needs.

Possible Outcomes, Not Forecasts

These consequences, some of which are associated with climate tipping points, are considered as unlikely but credible. The scientists stated that these scenarios plugged a hole in risk assessment that had rendered the UK unprepared for worst-case results.

"The climate extremes we have outlined aren’t predictions, but they are possible," commented the lead researcher who directed the research. "Britain has been planning in the absence of the tools to test against worst-case scenarios. We've now supplied policymakers what they need to prepare for environmental results they pray never occur, but can’t afford to ignore."

A Range of Extreme Weather Projections

Another collection of severe models details the projected severity of extreme weather between now and the close of the 2100s. These indicate that temperatures could soar in particular seasons by up to 6C above the norm, while precipitation could be three times normal levels.

The likelihood of the extreme scenarios coming to pass cannot be precisely determined due to a lack of certainty about what steps will be implemented to combat global warming and how the climate system will respond. This research was compared to defence planning or resilience checks for financial systems.

Critical Outcome Highlights

• Four-Degree Warming: Planetary heating rising well above 4C by 2100 could transpire if climate action breaks down or if powerful amplifying effects such as the Amazon rainforest becoming a net carbon source emit its huge repository of carbon. This would cause intense and enduring heatwaves and water shortages hitting the UK in summer.
• Atlantic Current Collapse: A critical sea current, the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (Amoc), is losing strength and becoming unstable due to global heating. A collapse beginning in 2030 would lead to a drastic cooling in the UK. "Farming would face immense difficulties and water supplies would be completely altered," said the professor.
• Accelerated Coastal Flooding: A rise of 2.0-2.2 metres around the UK by 2100 could happen if polar ice in the Arctic and Antarctic collapse rapidly, submerging seaside communities. Unlike the other scenarios, this possibility is already understood by coastal engineers.
• Pollution Paradox: Global averages could also be driven up by about 0.75C if industrial aerosols is rapidly cleaned up. This counterintuitive effect occurs because pollution particles from fossil fuel combustion scatter solar radiation from warming the ground.

Preparing for the Worst

The worst-case scenarios could be applied to guide the development of critical national infrastructure, including housing developments, energy plants and flood defences. Knowledge about these climate risks could also speed the transition to reduce fossil fuel emissions.

The research created the severe projections using a mix of real-world events, computer simulations and established principles. The scenarios omit potential global problems such as the global food shortages and geopolitical instability.

The project was commissioned as part of a government’s adaptation planning initiative. Previous assessments have cautioned that not enough attention was being allocated to low‐likelihood but high‐impact risks.

Official experts has stated that the UK must "adapt to 2C" and examine the risks for 4C. Past policy documents have been labeled being "insufficient" by some observers.

A government spokesperson noted: "Global warming is at the heart of the country's focus, both adapting for the future and establishing itself as a clean energy superpower. It is essential that the UK is resilient for the effects."